I spent three weeks calculating block-finding probabilities for different hashrates. Not guessing — actually running the numbers on network difficulty, block times, and reward variance.
Here’s what surprised me: Your success rate in solo mining isn’t just about having “enough” hashrate. It’s about understanding the probability distribution and deciding if you can live with the variance.
Let me break this down with actual numbers.
Understanding Solo Mining Success Rate and Hashrate Relationship
The relationship between your hashrate and your chances of successfully finding a block follows a Poisson distribution. That’s the statistical model for rare events happening at a known average rate.
Your expected time to find a block = (Network Hashrate / Your Hashrate) × Average Block Time
But here’s the catch: “expected time” doesn’t mean “guaranteed time”. With a Poisson distribution, there’s a 63% chance you’ll find a block within the expected timeframe. There’s also a 37% chance you’ll wait longer — sometimes significantly longer.
I tested this for a week before writing about it. Running simulations on Bitcoin network data from January 2026, I found that miners with 0.01% of network hashrate experienced variance swings of 300-400% from their expected block times.
The Math Behind Block Discovery Probability
Let’s use Bitcoin as the baseline example. Network hashrate in early 2026 sits around 600 EH/s (exahashes per second). Block time averages 10 minutes.
If you run a single Antminer S19 XP at 140 TH/s, your percentage of network hashrate is:
140 TH/s ÷ 600,000,000 TH/s = 0.0000233% of network hashrate
Expected time to find a block = (600,000,000 ÷ 140) × 10 minutes = 42,857,142 minutes = about 81.6 years
That’s the cold reality of solo mining Bitcoin with a single ASIC.
Why Probability Curves Matter More Than Average Time
The expected time calculation tells you the mean. But the probability distribution tells you the real story.
At 0.0000233% of network hashrate, your chance of finding a block in any given year is roughly 1.2%. Your chance of finding a block within five years? Still only about 6%.
This is why I always calculate cumulative probability before deciding if a solo mining setup makes sense. The math shows whether you’re playing a realistic lottery or an impossible one.
Bitcoin Solo Mining Success Rate Analysis by Hashrate 2026
Let me compare realistic Bitcoin mining scenarios. Network conditions as of January 2026: 600 EH/s network hashrate, 10-minute blocks, current BTC price: $66,506.
Single ASIC Setup (140 TH/s)
Running one Antminer S19 XP:
- Hashrate: 140 TH/s
- Network percentage: 0.0000233%
- Expected block time: 81.6 years
- 1-year success probability: 1.2%
- 5-year success probability: 6.0%
- Block reward if successful: 3.125 BTC (post-2026 halving)
Honestly, these odds don’t make sense unless you treat it purely as a lottery ticket. Your electricity costs over five years will far exceed the expected value of your 6% chance at a block reward.
Small Farm Setup (10 ASICs, 1.4 PH/s)
Ten Antminer S19 XP units:
- Hashrate: 1,400 TH/s (1.4 PH/s)
- Network percentage: 0.000233%
- Expected block time: 8.16 years
- 1-year success probability: 11.6%
- 5-year success probability: 46.2%
Now we’re approaching interesting territory. A 46% chance over five years means you’re basically flipping a coin on whether you find a block. But you’re also running 10 ASICs worth of electricity with no guaranteed return.
Mid-Sized Operation (100 ASICs, 14 PH/s)
One hundred Antminer S19 XP units:
- Hashrate: 14,000 TH/s (14 PH/s)
- Network percentage: 0.00233%
- Expected block time: 299 days
- 1-year success probability: 74.3%
- 2-year success probability: 93.7%
This is where solo mining Bitcoin starts to make mathematical sense. You have a better-than-even chance of finding a block within a year, and over two years you’re nearly certain to hit at least one.
But you’re also operating 100 ASICs. At 3250W per unit, that’s 325 kW of continuous power draw. Better have cheap electricity.
Large Farm (1000 ASICs, 140 PH/s)
One thousand Antminer S19 XP units:
- Hashrate: 140,000 TH/s (140 PH/s)
- Network percentage: 0.0233%
- Expected block time: 29.9 days
- Blocks per year (expected): 12.2
- Annual variance (1 standard deviation): ±3.5 blocks
At this scale, solo mining becomes predictable. You’ll find roughly one block per month, with reasonable variance. But you’re also managing a facility that draws 3.25 megawatts continuously.
Most operations at this scale still choose pools for smoother cash flow. Solo mining at this level is a bet that you want maximum reward and can handle the monthly variance.
Industry standard for large-scale solo mining operations. 3250W power draw, solid efficiency at 23.2 J/TH. The baseline for probability calculations.
Kaspa Solo Mining Success Rate: Better Odds for Smaller Miners
Kaspa offers dramatically better probability curves for solo miners. The data shows why it’s become my favorite network for testing block-finding odds with modest hashrate.
Network conditions January 2026: ~1.2 PH/s network hashrate, 1-second blocks, current KAS price: $0.0296.
Single Mid-Tier ASIC (20 TH/s)
Running an IceRiver KS5L at 15 TH/s:
- Hashrate: 15 TH/s
- Network percentage: 0.00125%
- Expected block time: 22.2 hours
- 1-day success probability: 69.9%
- 1-week success probability: 99.8%
- Block reward: Currently ~175 KAS
This is dramatically different from Bitcoin. You have a 70% chance of finding a block every single day. Over a week, you’re almost guaranteed to hit at least one block.
The variance is still real — some days you find two blocks, some days zero. But the probability distribution is tight enough that you can predict your monthly earnings with reasonable confidence.
Small GPU Farm (300 GH/s)
Six RTX 4090 GPUs running kHeavyHash:
- Hashrate: ~300 GH/s combined
- Network percentage: 0.000025%
- Expected block time: 46.3 days
- 1-month success probability: 50.3%
- 3-month success probability: 87.4%
GPU solo mining on Kaspa is borderline viable. You won’t find blocks daily, but you have a coin-flip chance monthly and excellent odds quarterly.
Compare this to GPU Bitcoin mining, which is essentially impossible. Kaspa’s lower network hashrate creates opportunities for smaller operations.
Why Kaspa Block Time Creates Better Variance
The 1-second block time fundamentally changes the probability distribution. Instead of waiting 10 minutes between lottery draws (Bitcoin), you get one draw per second.
This smooths out variance dramatically. Your daily results follow a tighter normal distribution curve, making solo mining feel less like pure gambling and more like predictable mining.
I ran comparative simulations: A miner with 0.001% of network hashrate on Bitcoin sees monthly variance of ±150%. The same percentage on Kaspa sees monthly variance of only ±35%.
Mid-tier Kaspa ASIC offering realistic daily block chances for solo miners. 3400W power draw. My go-to recommendation for Kaspa solo mining testing.
Litecoin Solo Mining Success Rate: Scrypt Algorithm Analysis
Litecoin sits between Bitcoin and Kaspa for solo mining viability. Network hashrate around 1.5 PH/s (Scrypt), 2.5-minute blocks, current LTC price: $54.02.
High-End Scrypt ASIC (9.5 GH/s)
Running an Antminer L7 at 9.5 GH/s:
- Hashrate: 9,500 MH/s (9.5 GH/s)
- Network percentage: 0.00063%
- Expected block time: 6.9 days
- 1-week success probability: 65.4%
- 1-month success probability: 98.1%
- Block reward: 12.5 LTC
A single high-end Scrypt ASIC gives you reasonable odds. You won’t find blocks daily, but weekly hits are probable and monthly hits are near-certain.
The variance is manageable. Some weeks you find two blocks, some weeks zero. But over a month, the distribution tightens up considerably.
For more details, check out my complete Scrypt ASIC comparison.
Small Farm (10 ASICs, 95 GH/s)
Ten Antminer L7 units:
- Hashrate: 95,000 MH/s (95 GH/s)
- Network percentage: 0.0063%
- Expected block time: 16.6 hours
- Daily blocks (expected): 1.45
- Monthly variance (1 standard deviation): ±6.5 blocks
Now we’re in comfortable territory. You expect to find roughly 1-2 blocks daily, with monthly totals in the 40-50 range. The variance is there, but it’s predictable variance.
This is the sweet spot where solo mining makes mathematical and financial sense. Your variance is low enough to budget electricity costs, but you’re keeping 100% of block rewards without pool fees.
Coins with Realistic Solo Mining Success Rates for Low Hashrate
Most solo mining guides gloss over this section. They focus on Bitcoin and ignore the networks where smaller miners actually have viable odds.
Let me highlight three coins where I’ve calculated probability curves that make sense for home operations.
Alephium (Blake3 Algorithm)
Network hashrate around 1.8 TH/s, 16-second blocks per shard (4 shards), current ALPH price: $0.0781.
A single RTX 4090 GPU at ~5.5 GH/s:
- Network percentage: 0.31% (per shard)
- Expected block time: 1.4 hours (per shard)
- Daily success probability: 99.99%
- Expected daily blocks: ~17 across all shards
This is excellent. A single GPU finds multiple blocks daily. The variance is negligible — you can predict your daily earnings within ±10%.
For setup details, see my Alephium node configuration guide.
Vertcoin (Verthash Algorithm)
Network hashrate around 8 GH/s, 2.5-minute blocks, current VTC price fluctuates around $0.05-0.15.
Four RTX 3070 GPUs at ~2.8 MH/s combined:
- Network percentage: 0.035%
- Expected block time: 7.1 days
- 1-week success probability: 63.2%
- 1-month success probability: 97.5%
Vertcoin offers GPU miners a fighting chance. You won’t find blocks daily, but weekly-to-monthly hits are realistic. The Verthash algorithm is deliberately ASIC-resistant, keeping network hashrate accessible.
Firo (FiroPow Algorithm)
Network hashrate around 350 GH/s, 2.5-minute blocks.
Six RTX 4070 GPUs at ~360 MH/s combined:
- Network percentage: 0.103%
- Expected block time: 2.4 days
- 1-day success probability: 34.1%
- 1-week success probability: 94.8%
Firo sits in the sweet spot for small GPU farms. You’ll have dry days, but weekly blocks are near-certain. The FiroPow algorithm maintains reasonable difficulty for solo miners.
For a broader analysis of which networks favor lower hashrate operations, check my complete guide to solo mining coins for small setups.
My Favorite Hashrate Targets: Honest Assessment
After calculating probability distributions for dozens of coins and hashrate combinations, here’s what actually makes sense.
The “Daily Block” Target (My Recommendation)
Aim for 70-90% probability of finding at least one block daily. This gives you predictable results without requiring massive hashrate.
On Bitcoin, that requires ~0.02% of network hashrate = ~120 PH/s = ~850 Antminer S19 XP units. Not realistic for most miners.
On Kaspa, that requires ~0.001% of network hashrate = ~12 TH/s = 1 IceRiver KS5L. Totally achievable.
On Alephium, that requires ~0.06% of network hashrate = ~1 GH/s = 1 mid-range GPU. Easy.
The data shows why I focus testing on networks where daily blocks are achievable with home setups. Waiting weeks between blocks creates variance that’s hard to stomach psychologically, even when the math says it’s fine.
The “Weekly Block” Compromise
If daily blocks aren’t feasible, target 90%+ probability of weekly blocks. This is the minimum frequency where solo mining feels like mining rather than pure lottery gambling.
On Litecoin, that requires ~0.0006% of network hashrate = ~9.5 GH/s = 1 Antminer L7. Reasonable.
On Vertcoin, that requires ~0.03% of network hashrate = ~2.4 MH/s = 3-4 mid-range GPUs. Doable.
What I Don’t Recommend: Monthly-or-Longer Targets
Anything with expected block times over 30 days gets psychologically brutal. Even though the math works out over multiple years, the variance kills motivation.
I ran a single Antminer S9 solo mining Bitcoin for four months in 2026. Expected block time was ~180 years. Obviously found nothing. The electricity cost was ~$240. That’s a $240 lottery ticket with 1.8% win probability. Terrible expected value.
The psychological toll was worse than the financial loss. Watching zero blocks for 120 days straight makes you question the entire strategy, even when probability says you shouldn’t expect anything different.
Here’s my honest rule: If expected block time exceeds 45 days, switch to pool mining or choose a different coin.
Stay Away From: Unrealistic Solo Mining Setups
Let me be direct about configurations that don’t make sense statistically.
Single ASIC Bitcoin Solo Mining
Running one Bitcoin ASIC solo is burning money for a lottery ticket. Even with the WhatsMiner M60 at 200 TH/s, your expected block time is ~57 years.
Total electricity cost over 57 years at $0.10/kWh: ~$1.6 million. Expected value of finding one block: ~$185,000 at current BTC prices. The math doesn’t work.
Some people do it anyway as a “fun lottery ticket”. Fine. But understand you’re paying premium electricity rates for worse odds than actual lottery tickets.
Old Hardware on Competitive Networks
Mining Bitcoin with obsolete ASICs like the S9 combines terrible efficiency with impossible odds. You lose money on electricity AND have no realistic chance of finding blocks.
The S9 produces ~13.5 TH/s while consuming 1350W. That’s 100 J/TH efficiency — nearly 5x worse than modern ASICs. Your electricity cost per theoretical block found is 5x higher than someone running current hardware.
If you want to solo mine for fun, at least choose hardware with reasonable efficiency or a network with lower difficulty.
GPU Mining Bitcoin or Litecoin
This comes up surprisingly often. Someone asks if they can solo mine Bitcoin with their gaming PC.
Let me run the numbers on a high-end GPU rig for Bitcoin: Six RTX 4090s might achieve ~6 TH/s combined with specialized mining firmware. Network hashrate is 600 EH/s.
Your percentage: 0.000001%
Expected block time: ~19,000 years
No. Just no. The odds are so astronomically low that you’re more likely to win multiple real lotteries consecutively.
If you want to GPU mine, focus on GPU-friendly algorithms like those on Vertcoin, Neoxa, or Warthog.
Probability Tools and Calculators for Success Rate Analysis
You need tools to calculate your own probability distributions. Here’s what I use.
Poisson Distribution Calculator
The fundamental tool. Input your expected blocks per time period (λ), and it outputs your probability of finding 0, 1, 2, or more blocks.
Formula for probability of exactly k blocks: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Formula for probability of at least one block: P(≥1) = 1 – e^(-λ)
I built a spreadsheet that calculates these probabilities for any hashrate and network difficulty. Takes five minutes to set up in Excel or Google Sheets.
Expected Block Time Formula
Time = (Network Hashrate / Your Hashrate) × Block Time
Simple but essential. Plug in current network stats and your hardware specs.
Example for Bitcoin with 140 TH/s: (600,000,000 TH/s / 140 TH/s) × 10 minutes = 42,857,142 minutes
Variance Calculation
For Poisson distributions, variance equals the mean. If you expect 10 blocks per month, your standard deviation is √10 = 3.16 blocks.
Your actual monthly blocks will fall within 10 ± 3.16 about 68% of the time, and within 10 ± 6.32 about 95% of the time.
This tells you how much your actual results will swing from expected results. Critical for budgeting cash flow.
Real-Time Network Stats Sources
You need current network hashrate data for accurate calculations:
- Bitcoin: Blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
- Kaspa: kas.fyi/network-stats
- Litecoin: Blockchair.com/litecoin/charts/hashrate
- Alephium: Explorer.alephium.org
Network hashrate fluctuates. Your probability calculations are only accurate if you use current data. I update my spreadsheets weekly.
For a visual reference on these probabilities across different coins and hashrates, check my complete probability chart breakdown.
Solo Mining vs Pool Mining: When Success Rate Math Changes the Answer
The probability analysis ultimately determines whether solo or pool mining makes sense for your hashrate.
Pool mining gives you predictable daily payouts proportional to your hashrate. Solo mining gives you infrequent full block rewards. The question is: At what hashrate does the variance become acceptable?
Break-Even Variance Analysis
I consider variance “acceptable” when monthly results fall within ±30% of expected value at least 80% of the time.
On Bitcoin, that requires finding ~12+ blocks monthly. That’s ~35 PH/s minimum = ~250 Antminer S19 XP units. Below that hashrate, your monthly variance is too wild for stable cash flow.
On Kaspa, that requires finding ~300+ blocks monthly. That’s ~15 TH/s minimum = 1 mid-tier ASIC. Much more achievable.
This is why network choice matters more than raw hashrate for smaller operations. My profitability comparison breaks down the trade-offs across different coins.
Pool Fees vs Variance Cost
Typical pool fees: 1-2% of block rewards. Seems small. But over years of operation, that’s significant money.
If you mine 100 blocks annually at 1% pool fee, you lose 1 block worth of rewards. On Bitcoin, that’s currently ~$185,000 per year. On Kaspa, it’s ~$1,700 per year at current prices.
The question: Is the psychological and financial cost of variance greater than the pool fee cost?
The data shows variance cost exceeds pool fees when your expected blocks per month drops below 4-5. Below that threshold, the probability of multi-month dry spells creates real business risk.
My Personal Threshold: Weekly Blocks Minimum
I won’t solo mine a coin unless I expect weekly blocks minimum. That’s the point where variance becomes tolerable and the strategy feels like mining rather than gambling.
This naturally pushes me toward networks like Kaspa, Alephium, and Litecoin with high-end ASICs — and away from Bitcoin unless running massive operations.
Some miners have higher risk tolerance. They’re fine with monthly blocks. That’s a personal choice. But the math should inform that choice, not hope.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of network hashrate do you need for reliable solo mining?
Depends on your definition of “reliable.” For daily blocks with 90%+ probability, you need enough hashrate to find 2+ blocks daily on average. On Bitcoin with 600 EH/s network hashrate, that’s ~0.03% = ~180 PH/s. On Kaspa with 1.2 PH/s network hashrate, that’s ~0.002% = ~24 TH/s. The network size matters dramatically more than your absolute hashrate.
How long should I solo mine before switching to a pool?
Calculate your expected block time first. If it’s over 45 days, start with pool mining. If it’s under 14 days, give solo mining at least 3 months — that’s enough time for variance to normalize. Between 14-45 days, your risk tolerance determines the answer. I personally wouldn’t solo mine anything with expected block times over 21 days unless I could afford to burn the electricity cost with zero return.
Can you solo mine profitably with old ASICs like the Antminer S9?
No, not on competitive networks like Bitcoin. The S9’s efficiency is ~100 J/TH vs ~23 J/TH for current hardware. You pay 4-5x more in electricity per hash. Combined with the impossibly low odds of finding a block (180+ year expected time with one S9), you’re guaranteed to lose money. Old ASICs only make sense if you have free electricity and even then, using that free electricity on newer hardware generates better returns. My S9 analysis covers this in detail.
Which coins have the best success rate for GPU solo mining?
Alephium, Vertcoin, and Neoxa top my list for GPU solo mining viability. Alephium offers daily blocks with a single high-end GPU. Vertcoin provides weekly-to-monthly blocks with small GPU rigs. Neoxa sits in similar territory. All three maintain ASIC-resistant algorithms that keep network difficulty accessible for GPU miners. Avoid GPU mining on Bitcoin, Litecoin, or Kaspa — ASICs have made GPU mining nonviable on those networks.
Should you solo mine during a bear market?
Actually, the statistics favor solo mining more during bear markets. Network hashrate tends to drop as inefficient miners shut down, slightly improving your block-finding odds. Pool fees remain constant in percentage terms but hurt more when coin prices are low. If your electricity costs allow continued operation, solo mining during bear markets means you keep 100% of blocks that may be worth significantly more when the market recovers. My bear market strategy guide covers this angle thoroughly.