Solo Mining Profitability Calculator: Calculate Block Odds

Most solo miners start with one question: “When will I actually find a block?” Honestly, calculating your chances isn’t complicated, but the answer might surprise you. I’ve seen miners jump into solo mining with 100 MH/s on Ethereum expecting a block within weeks, only to realize their actual odds put them at roughly one block every 47 years.

That naturally depends on your setup.

A proper profitability calculator for solo mining works differently than pool mining calculators. Pool calculators show you daily earnings. Solo calculators show you probability over time. Big difference. This guide walks you through calculating your block-finding odds, expected time to block, variance ranges, and actual profitability after electricity costs.

No fancy tools required. Just basic math and honest numbers.

Understanding Solo Mining Probability vs Pool Mining Returns

Pool mining gives you predictable daily payouts. Solo mining gives you lottery-style block rewards. The math behind both is identical — same hashrate, same difficulty, same block reward. But the payout structure completely changes your experience.

In a pool, your 100 MH/s on Kaspa might earn you 50 KAS daily. Pretty stable.

Solo mining with that same 100 MH/s? You earn nothing for weeks, then suddenly hit a full block worth 11,760 KAS. The average over a year matches pool earnings, but the variance is brutal. Some miners hit blocks faster than expected. Most don’t.

Your profitability calculator needs to account for three things:

• Average time to find a block (mathematical expectation)
• Variance range (realistic best/worst case scenarios)
• Electricity costs during the waiting period

That third point kills most solo mining operations. Running hardware for six months without a block means six months of pure electricity costs with zero revenue. Can you afford that? Actually, that’s the first question any calculator should answer.

I ran an RTX 3070 solo mining Ravencoin for three months in 2026. My calculated average time to block was 83 days. I found nothing and spent roughly $180 in electricity. Mathematically correct outcome, financially painful.

Step 1: Calculate Network Hashrate and Your Percentage

First step in any solo mining profitability calculation: figure out what percentage of the network you control. Small percentage means long wait times. Simple as that.

You need two numbers:

• Network hashrate (total mining power on the coin)
• Your hashrate (your mining hardware output)

Network hashrate varies by coin. Bitcoin sits around 400 EH/s (exahashes per second). Kaspa fluctuates between 800-1,200 PH/s (petahashes). Ravencoin typically runs 5-8 TH/s. Check block explorers or mining pools for current network hashrate — most display it on their homepage.

Your hashrate depends on your hardware. An Antminer S19 XP delivers 140 TH/s on SHA-256 (Bitcoin). An RTX 4090 pushes about 120 MH/s on KawPow (Ravencoin) or 1.1 GH/s on KHeavyHash (Kaspa). Make sure you’re comparing apples to apples — Bitcoin uses SHA-256, Kaspa uses KHeavyHash, different algorithms with different hashrate units.

Calculate your network percentage:

Your Network % = (Your Hashrate / Network Hashrate) × 100

Example with Kaspa:

• Network hashrate: 1,000 PH/s = 1,000,000,000 GH/s
• Your hashrate: 10 GH/s (roughly 9× RTX 4070 GPUs)
• Your percentage: (10 / 1,000,000,000) × 100 = 0.000001%

That’s a tiny slice. Which is fine, but you need realistic expectations going in.

For reference, controlling 1% of a network means you’d statistically find 1 out of every 100 blocks. At 0.000001%, you’re finding 1 out of every 100,000,000 blocks. Kaspa produces about 30 blocks per minute, so roughly 43,200 blocks per day. At your percentage, you’d average one block every 2,315 days — about 6.3 years.

That naturally depends on variance.

Step 2: Calculate Average Time to Find a Block

Once you know your network percentage, calculating average block time becomes straightforward. This gives you the mathematical expectation — not a guarantee, but the statistical average over infinite attempts.

Formula:

Average Time to Block = Network Block Time / Your Network Percentage

Network block time varies by coin:

• Bitcoin: ~10 minutes per block
• Litecoin: ~2.5 minutes
• Kaspa: ~1 second (technically uses BlockDAG with multiple blocks per second)
• Ravencoin: ~1 minute
• Monero: ~2 minutes

Using our Kaspa example from earlier:

• Your percentage: 0.000001%
• Kaspa block time: 1 second
• Average time to block: 1 second / 0.000001% = 1 second / 0.00000001 = 100,000,000 seconds
• Convert to days: 100,000,000 / 86,400 = 1,157 days = 3.17 years

Wait, that’s different from my earlier calculation. Let me recalculate.

Actually, I simplified Kaspa’s block structure. Kaspa uses BlockDAG technology producing roughly 10 blocks per second. So the effective “block time” for calculation purposes is 0.1 seconds. Recalculating:

Average time to block: 0.1 seconds / 0.00000001 = 10,000,000 seconds = 115.7 days

Much more reasonable for that hashrate. Still almost four months on average, but within the realm of possibility for a serious miner.

For Bitcoin solo mining with an S19 XP (140 TH/s):

• Network hashrate: 400 EH/s = 400,000,000 TH/s
• Your percentage: (140 / 400,000,000) × 100 = 0.000035%
• Bitcoin block time: 10 minutes = 600 seconds
• Average time to block: 600 / 0.00000035 = 1,714,285,714 seconds = 19,840 days = 54.4 years

That’s why Bitcoin solo mining is basically dead for individual miners.

Step 3: Calculate Variance and Realistic Time Ranges

Here’s where it gets real. Average time to block is mathematically correct but practically useless without understanding variance. Block finding follows a Poisson distribution — you could find a block on your first day or wait 10× the average. Both outcomes happen regularly.

Variance in solo mining is massive.

Standard probability ranges for finding at least one block:

• 50% chance: 0.69× average time
• 63% chance: 1× average time
• 86% chance: 2× average time
• 95% chance: 3× average time
• 99% chance: 4.6× average time

Using our Kaspa example (average time 115.7 days):

• 50% chance of block within: 80 days
• 63% chance within: 116 days
• 86% chance within: 231 days
• 95% chance within: 347 days

This means you have a 50/50 shot of finding a block within 80 days, but also a 5% chance of going almost a full year without hitting anything. That’s the nature of solo mining. You’re playing probability, not certainty.

For practical planning, I recommend calculating your costs at 2× average time. If your average is 115 days, budget for 230 days of electricity with zero revenue. If you can’t afford that, solo mining probably isn’t the right choice.

Some miners get lucky. I know a guy who hit a Ravencoin block with 200 MH/s after just 11 days when his average was 67 days. Pure variance working in his favor. But for every early block, someone else is waiting 3× their average time, burning electricity and patience.

Step 4: Calculate Block Reward Value and Break-Even Point

Knowing when you’ll probably find a block is half the equation. The other half: is that block worth the wait?

Block reward varies by coin and includes two components:

• Coinbase transaction (fixed reward)
• Transaction fees (variable)

Current block rewards (coinbase only):

• Bitcoin: 6.25 BTC (until next halving)
• Kaspa: ~11,760 KAS (decreases monthly via smooth emission)
• Ravencoin: 2,500 RVN
• Litecoin: 12.5 LTC
• Monero: ~0.6 XMR (decreases gradually)

Bitcoin block rewards currently include significant transaction fees, often 0.5-2 BTC additional depending on network congestion. Kaspa transaction fees are minimal, usually under 10 KAS per block. That matters for profitability calculations.

Calculate block value:

Block Value = (Coinbase Reward + Average Tx Fees) × Coin Price

Example for Kaspa at current price of $0.0296:

• Coinbase reward: 11,760 KAS
• Transaction fees: ~5 KAS
• Total block: 11,765 KAS
• Block value: 11,765 × $0.0296

Now calculate your electricity cost during the average wait time.

Using our 10 GH/s Kaspa setup (9× RTX 4070):

• Power consumption: ~1,800W total (9× 200W)
• Daily electricity: 1.8 kW × 24 hours = 43.2 kWh
• Daily cost at $0.12/kWh: $5.18
• Cost over 115.7 days: $599

Break-even analysis:

• Expected block value: calculate using current Kaspa price
• Expected electricity cost: $599
• Profit per block: Block value – $599

At $0.0296, one Kaspa block would need to exceed $599 in value to break even on electricity alone. That’s not accounting for hardware depreciation, internet costs, or your time.

Honest assessment: if your break-even is marginal, price volatility becomes your biggest risk. Kaspa could jump 50% during your wait (great), or drop 50% (disaster). Calculate your profitability at current price, +30%, and -30% to understand your risk exposure.

Step 5: Build Your Solo Mining Profitability Spreadsheet

Doing these calculations once is useful. Tracking them over time is essential. I built a simple spreadsheet that updates my block-finding odds daily and recalculates break-even as network difficulty changes.

Spreadsheet columns you need:

• Date
• Network hashrate
• Your hashrate
• Network difficulty (optional but useful)
• Coin price
• Electricity rate
• Daily power consumption
• Average days to block
• 50% probability time
• 95% probability time
• Electricity cost at average time
• Expected block value
• Profit/loss per block

Update weekly or after significant network changes. Kaspa’s network hashrate fluctuates 20-30% regularly. That changes your odds substantially.

Formula examples for spreadsheet cells:

Your Network %: = (Your_Hashrate / Network_Hashrate) * 100

Average Time to Block (seconds): = Block_Time_Seconds / (Your_Network_% / 100)

Average Time to Block (days): = Average_Time_Seconds / 86400

Electricity Cost at Average: = Daily_Power_Cost * Average_Days_to_Block

Block Value: = (Coinbase_Reward + Avg_Tx_Fees) * Coin_Price

Profit per Block: = Block_Value – Electricity_Cost_at_Average

I also add a “Days Mining” counter that increments daily. When it exceeds my 50% probability time without a block, I reassess whether to continue. Sunk cost fallacy is real in solo mining — just because you’ve mined for 200 days doesn’t mean a block is “due.” Every day is independent probability.

For monitoring your actual mining operation, check out this guide on setting up a monitoring dashboard that tracks your hashrate and node status in real-time.

Step 6: Account for Difficulty Adjustments and Network Growth

Your calculations today won’t match reality six months from now. Network hashrate changes constantly, which directly impacts your block-finding odds. Difficulty adjustments keep block times stable as hashrate increases or decreases.

Most coins adjust difficulty regularly:

• Bitcoin: Every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks)
• Kaspa: Every block (smooth adjustment)
• Ravencoin: Every block (Dark Gravity Wave algorithm)
• Monero: Every block

Rising network hashrate = longer time to block for you. Your hardware percentage decreases as more miners join. This is especially brutal on newly popular coins. I watched Kaspa’s network hashrate triple in Q1 2026, which meant my block odds got 3× worse despite identical hardware.

Project future difficulty when calculating long-term profitability:

• Conservative estimate: +2% monthly network growth
• Moderate estimate: +5% monthly
• Aggressive estimate: +10% monthly (typical for trending coins)

Calculate your average block time under each scenario:

Current: 115 days
After 3 months (+5% monthly growth): 133 days
After 6 months: 154 days
After 12 months: 207 days

That means your profitability deteriorates over time unless coin price increases proportionally. Solo mining older, stable coins like Litecoin or Monero shows more predictable difficulty trends. Newer coins are wild cards.

One more consideration: coin emission schedules. Kaspa’s block reward decreases smoothly every month via chromatic emission. Bitcoin halves every ~4 years. If you’re calculating profitability near a reward decrease, factor that into your expected block value.

Real Solo Mining Profitability Examples with Actual Numbers

Theory is useful. Real examples are better. Let me walk through profitability calculations for three different solo mining scenarios: one with good odds, one marginal, one basically impossible.

Scenario 1: Kaspa Solo Mining with 50 GH/s (Good Odds)

Setup: 5× RTX 4090 GPUs, optimized with proper undervolting

• Hashrate: 50 GH/s (5× 10 GH/s per card)
• Power draw: 1,750W (5× 350W at 70% power limit)
• Network hashrate: 1,000 PH/s
• Your percentage: 0.000005%
• Average block time: 23 days
• 50% probability: 16 days
• 95% probability: 69 days

Costs at average time (23 days):

• Daily electricity: 42 kWh × $0.12 = $5.04
• Total cost: $115.92

Expected revenue:

• Block reward: 11,760 KAS
• Value at $0.0296: Calculate current value
• Profit after electricity: Block value – $115.92

This scenario offers reasonable odds. Finding a block every 2-3 weeks on average is manageable. Variance could stretch it to 2 months at 95% probability, costing about $300 in electricity. Still acceptable for most miners.

Scenario 2: Ravencoin Solo Mining with 500 MH/s (Marginal)

Setup: 5× RTX 3070 GPUs

• Hashrate: 500 MH/s (5× 100 MH/s per card)
• Power draw: 1,000W (5× 200W optimized)
• Network hashrate: 7 TH/s = 7,000,000 MH/s
• Your percentage: 0.00714%
• Ravencoin block time: 60 seconds
• Average block time: 60 / 0.0000714 = 840,336 seconds = 9.7 days

Costs at average time (9.7 days):

• Daily electricity: 24 kWh × $0.12 = $2.88
• Total cost: $27.94

Expected revenue:

• Block reward: 2,500 RVN
• Value at $0.005720: Calculate current value
• Profit after electricity: Block value – $27.94

Ravencoin’s lower network hashrate makes solo mining more accessible, but the coin price is also much lower. At current prices, 2,500 RVN blocks typically don’t provide huge profits. The short average block time (under 10 days) makes this psychologically easier than longer waits, but variance could still push you to 30+ days at 95% probability.

Scenario 3: Bitcoin Solo Mining with Single S19 XP (Impossible)

Setup: Antminer S19 XP

• Hashrate: 140 TH/s
• Power draw: 3,010W
• Network hashrate: 400 EH/s = 400,000,000 TH/s
• Your percentage: 0.000035%
• Average block time: 54.4 years

This is mathematically possible but practically insane. You’d spend roughly $475,000 in electricity over 54 years (at $0.12/kWh) waiting for a block currently worth about $66,506 × 6.25 BTC. Even if Bitcoin price increases substantially, the odds don’t justify the approach.

Bitcoin solo mining only makes sense with massive hashrate — we’re talking multiple petahashes minimum, which requires hundreds of ASIC units and significant capital investment. For individual miners, Bitcoin solo mining is dead.

Tools and Resources for Solo Mining Profitability Calculations

While I recommend building your own spreadsheet for accurate tracking, several online tools help with quick calculations. Just remember: most mining calculators assume pool mining with steady payouts. For solo mining, you need probability calculations.

Useful resources:

WhatToMine.com – Shows network hashrate, block rewards, and difficulty for dozens of coins. Doesn’t calculate solo mining odds directly, but provides the raw data you need for manual calculations.

MiningPoolStats.stream – Excellent for tracking network hashrate changes over time. I check this weekly to update my spreadsheet with current network stats.

Block explorers – Each coin has dedicated block explorers showing real-time network stats, recent blocks, and difficulty. Essential for accurate calculations.

For actual mining software configuration, you’ll need proper solo mining setup. Depending on your coin choice, check these guides:

• Bitcoin Core solo mining setup (if you’re doing Bitcoin lottery mining)
• HiveOS configuration for GPU rigs
• T-Rex Miner for NVIDIA GPUs
• TeamRedMiner for AMD GPUs

For proper node setup, you’ll often need port forwarding configured and possibly a stratum proxy bridge depending on your mining software.

One tool I haven’t found but would love to see: a proper solo mining variance calculator that shows probability distributions graphically. Something that visualizes your 50%, 75%, 90%, 95%, and 99% probability ranges on a timeline. If anyone builds this, let me know.

When Solo Mining Makes Financial Sense (And When It Doesn’t)

Let’s be honest: solo mining rarely makes pure financial sense compared to pool mining. You take on significantly more variance for the same average returns. So why do it?

Solo mining makes sense when:

• You can afford extended zero-income periods (months of electricity costs)
• Your average block time is under 60 days
• Your break-even electricity cost is less than 30% of expected block value
• You’re mining primarily for the technical challenge, not maximum profit
• You’re gambling on significant coin price appreciation during your mining period
• You value the autonomy and self-sovereignty of running your own full node

Solo mining probably doesn’t make sense when:

• Your average block time exceeds 6 months
• Electricity costs equal or exceed 50% of expected block value
• You can’t afford to lose several months of electricity costs
• The coin has high difficulty volatility (your odds change weekly)
• You need predictable income for ROI calculations

I switched from pool to solo mining on Kaspa in early 2026 with 30 GH/s. My average block time was about 40 days, electricity represented roughly 15% of expected block value. Reasonable odds. I found my first block after 67 days — worse than average, but within normal variance. The second block came 18 days later. Pure luck.

Compare that to a friend who solo mined Ergo with 800 MH/s. His average was 120 days. He went 274 days without a block before finally hitting one. He actually lost money after electricity costs despite finding a block, because Ergo’s price dropped 40% during his wait.

That’s the reality of solo mining profitability. Your calculator shows probabilities, not guarantees.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are solo mining profitability calculators compared to actual results?

The math behind calculators is accurate for average expectations over infinite attempts. Your specific results will vary significantly due to variance. A calculator saying “average 45 days per block” means exactly that — the mathematical average. You could find blocks at 10 days, 30 days, and 80 days, averaging 40 days across three blocks. Or you might wait 180 days for your first block. Both outcomes are statistically normal. Calculators show probability, not prediction. They’re accurate for understanding odds, but useless for predicting when your specific block will hit.

What’s the minimum hashrate needed to make solo mining worth it?

That naturally depends on the coin and your electricity costs. As a general rule, aim for average block times under 90 days. This typically requires 0.001-0.01% of the network hashrate depending on the coin’s block time. For Kaspa, that’s roughly 10-100 GH/s. For Ravencoin, 70-700 MH/s. For Bitcoin, honestly, there’s no reasonable minimum — you’d need petahashes to get under 90-day averages. Calculate your specific odds using the formulas above, then decide if the average wait time fits your risk tolerance and budget.

Should I include hardware costs in my solo mining profitability calculation?

Yes, but differently than electricity. Electricity is a direct ongoing cost you must pay during the wait period. Hardware is a capital investment that retains resale value. I recommend calculating two separate metrics: operational break-even (covering electricity) and full break-even (covering electricity + hardware depreciation). Operational break-even tells you if each block is profitable. Full break-even tells you if the entire operation makes financial sense. Also consider that hardware has alternative uses — you can always switch back to pool mining or mine different coins if solo mining doesn’t work out.

How often should I recalculate my solo mining profitability?

I update my spreadsheet weekly, or immediately after major network changes. Network hashrate on volatile coins can swing 20-30% in days, dramatically changing your odds. Also recalculate after significant coin price movements — a 50% price drop might turn a profitable operation into a money-losing one. Set calendar reminders for weekly updates, and check network stats on your block explorer daily. If you see your average block time increasing consistently over several weeks, that’s network growth eating into your odds.

Can I improve my block-finding odds without buying more hardware?

Not really. Your odds are determined by your percentage of network hashrate. There’s no trick to “find blocks faster” with the same hardware. However, you can optimize efficiency through proper overclocking and undervolting, which doesn’t increase odds but does reduce electricity costs per attempt. You can also mine coins with lower network hashrate relative to your hardware — 500 MH/s has better odds on a 5 TH/s network than a 50 TH/s network. Choose your coin strategically based on your hashrate. Some miners switch between coins as difficulty changes, always chasing the best odds.