What Are Your Real Odds of Solo Mining a Bitcoin Block?

Every ten minutes, someone finds a Bitcoin block. With a small miner on your desk, you are technically in the running every single time. But what are your actual odds? This guide breaks down the exact math — no hype, no hand-waving — so you can understand what you are signing up for.

The Short Answer

With a Bitaxe Gamma 602 running at 1.2 TH/s, your chance of finding a block on any given day is approximately 1 in 535 million.

Here’s how that number works. The Bitcoin network currently runs at roughly 925 EH/s [VERIFY]. That’s 925,000,000 TH/s. Your Gamma 602 contributes 1.2 TH/s. The network finds approximately 144 blocks per day (one every ~10 minutes).

Your daily probability:

“`

P(block per day) = (device_hashrate / network_hashrate) × 144

P = (1.2 / 925,000,000) × 144

P = 1.297e-9 × 144

P = 1.868e-7

P ≈ 1 in 5,353,009 per block

P ≈ 1 in 37,174 per day… wait — let’s be precise.

“`

Actually, let’s restate this cleanly. Your share of the network per block:

“`

Share = 1.2 TH/s / 925,000,000 TH/s = 1.297 × 10⁻⁹

“`

The probability you find at least one block in a day (144 blocks):

“`

P(at least 1 per day) = 1 – (1 – 1.297e-9)^144 ≈ 144 × 1.297e-9 = 1.868 × 10⁻⁷

“`

That’s approximately 1 in 5,354,000 per day, or equivalently, an expected wait time of about 14,668 years.

Sounds impossible.

But someone wins every 10 minutes — and in 2026, Solo CKPool users alone found 22 blocks, several with sub-1 TH/s devices.

How Bitcoin Mining Probability Works

Each SHA-256 hash your miner computes is an independent trial. It either meets the current difficulty target or it doesn’t. There’s no “building up” toward a solution. There’s no progress bar. Every hash has the same infinitesimal chance of being the winning one.

This means solo mining follows a Poisson process — the same math that governs radioactive decay and lightning strikes. Your probability of finding a block in any time window depends only on your share of the total network hashrate and how many blocks are produced in that window.

The formula:

“`

P(at least 1 block in T days) = 1 – e^(-λ)

where λ = (device_hashrate / network_hashrate) × 144 × T

“`

For small probabilities, this simplifies to approximately:

“`

P ≈ (device_hashrate / network_hashrate) × 144 × T

“`

Here’s the thing: each hash is memoryless. Running your miner for a year without finding a block doesn’t make you “due.” Your odds on day 366 are identical to your odds on day 1.

Your Odds by Device

All calculations use a network hashrate of 925 EH/s (925,000,000 TH/s) [VERIFY] and 144 blocks per day.

Device	Hashrate	Daily Odds (1 in X)	Expected Time to Block
Lucky Miner LV06	500 GH/s (0.5 TH/s)	1 in 12,847,222	~35,200 years
Lucky Miner LV08	500 GH/s (0.5 TH/s)	1 in 12,847,222	~35,200 years
Bitaxe Gamma 602	1.2 TH/s	1 in 5,353,009	~14,665 years
Bitaxe GT 801	2.15 TH/s	1 in 2,988,401	~8,187 years
NerdQaxe 2.9	2.9 TH/s	1 in 2,215,517	~6,070 years
Canaan Avalon Nano 3S	6 TH/s	1 in 1,070,602	~2,933 years
NerdQaxe++ Rev 6.1	6 TH/s	1 in 1,070,602	~2,933 years
Canaan Avalon Mini 3	37.5 TH/s	1 in 171,296	~469 years

Showing the work (Bitaxe Gamma 602 example):

“`

Daily probability = (1.2 / 925,000,000) × 144 = 1.868 × 10⁻⁷

Daily odds = 1 / 1.868e-7 = 5,353,009

Expected days = 5,353,009

Expected years = 5,353,009 / 365.25 = 14,655 years

“`

Stacking example — 5× Bitaxe Gamma 602 (6 TH/s total):

“`

Daily probability = (6.0 / 925,000,000) × 144 = 9.340 × 10⁻⁷

Daily odds = 1 in 1,070,602

Expected time = ~2,933 years

“`

The odds improve linearly with hashrate. Double your hashrate, halve your expected wait time.

The Lottery Comparison

People buy Powerball tickets at odds of 1 in 292 million per draw. Two draws per week means roughly 104 chances per year, or about 1 in 2.8 million per year.

A Bitaxe Gamma 602 gives you a 1 in 5.35 million chance per day, which translates to roughly 1 in 14,665 per year. That’s about 191 times better annual odds than playing Powerball once a week.

And the comparison gets more interesting when you consider the economics:

	Powerball (1 ticket/week)	Bitaxe Gamma 602
Annual cost	~$104	~$120 (device) + ~$22 (electricity) first year, then ~$22/year
Annual odds	~1 in 2,808,000	~1 in 14,665
Top prize	$200M+ (shared, taxed, annuitized)	~$210,000 (3.125 BTC, self-custody, no sharing)
Ongoing cost	$104/year forever	~$22/year electricity
Resale value	$0	~$60–80 used
Educational value	None	Real Bitcoin knowledge

The solo miner has worse annual odds than Powerball, but the total lifetime cost is dramatically lower after the first year, and you get to keep the hardware. Over a 10-year period, $1,040 in Powerball tickets versus roughly $340 total for the Bitaxe (device + decade of electricity). And unlike a lottery ticket, the miner runs 24/7/365 — that’s over 5.2 million blocks it participates in over ten years.

How to Improve Your Odds

Buy multiple miners. The improvement is perfectly linear. Three Bitaxe Gamma 602 units running simultaneously give you exactly 3x the odds of one. Many winners ran clusters — the March 10, 2026 win came from six Bitaxe devices stacked together.

Choose higher-hashrate devices. A NerdQaxe++ at 6 TH/s gives you 5x the daily odds of a Gamma 602 at 1.2 TH/s. The cost difference is roughly 4x. That makes the NerdQaxe++ a better deal per unit of probability.

Run your miner 24/7. Every minute of downtime is a missed chance. WiFi drops, power outages, and firmware updates all cost you hashes. Use Ethernet where possible and put your miner on a UPS if you’re serious.

Join a solo mining pool. Solo CKPool and Ocean Mining’s DATUM protocol handle the full-node infrastructure so you don’t need to run one yourself. Your odds are exactly the same as solo mining directly — the pool just provides the block templates and broadcasts your block if you find one. Solo CKPool charges a 2% fee on block rewards.

Real Block Wins: Proof It Happens

The math says it should be nearly impossible.

The blockchain says otherwise.

• July 24, 2026 — A single Bitaxe Ultra at ~500 GH/s found block #853,742 on Solo CKPool. Reward: 3.13 BTC (~$206,000). The first confirmed Bitaxe solo win. [VERIFY]
• March 10, 2026 — A Bitaxe at 480 GH/s solved block #887,212. Reward: 3.15 BTC (~$258,000).
• March 23, 2026 — A single Bitaxe Gamma at 1.2 TH/s found block #889,975. Reward: 3.158 BTC (~$264,000).
• September 5, 2026 — A NerdQaxe++ at 4.8 TH/s solved block #913,272 via Ocean DATUM. First NerdQaxe block win.
• November 21, 2026 — A ~6 TH/s device found block #924,569 on Solo CKPool. Reward: 3.146 BTC (~$300,000).
• January 13, 2026 — Block #932,129 solved on Solo CKPool. Reward: 3.155 BTC (~$292,000). [VERIFY]

See the complete block wins database

Every one of these events was wildly improbable on any given day. And every one of them happened.

Use a Calculator

Run your own numbers with these tools:

• SoloChance.org — Enter your hashrate and see your odds per block, per day, per week, per month, per year, and by the 2026 halving. Supports multiple cryptocurrencies.
• Solo CKPool Stats — Live pool statistics including total hashrate, active users, and time since last block found. Visit solostats.ckpool.org for graphical breakdowns.

Secure Your Winnings

If you beat the odds, you need a wallet ready to receive 3.125+ BTC. That’s over $200,000 at current prices. Don’t leave that on an exchange or in a hot wallet.

Ledger Nano X (~$149) — Buy Ledger Nano X

Trezor Model T (~$179) — Buy Trezor Model T

Set up your hardware wallet before you start mining. Not after.

Related Guides

• Best Bitcoin Solo Miners in 2026
• Every Bitcoin Solo Block Win: Complete Database
• Solo Mining Block Reward: Understanding Your Real Earnings
• Is Solo Mining Worth It in 2026?

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