Solo Mining Profitability: Bitcoin vs Litecoin vs Kaspa 2026

You want to get into solo mining but can’t figure out which coin to target? I spent three months running the numbers on Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Kaspa before pointing my hardware at anything.

The answer isn’t simple. It actually depends on your hashrate, your electricity cost, and honestly — your patience level.

Here’s what the numbers say: A Bitcoin block pays around 3.125 BTC (currently worth approximately $66,312 × 3.125), but you’re competing against exahashes of industrial farms. Litecoin blocks come faster at 2.5 minutes versus Bitcoin’s 10 minutes, but pay only 6.25 LTC per block. Kaspa generates a block every second with its blockDAG architecture, fundamentally changing the solo mining equation.

Let me break this down coin by coin, with real hashrate requirements, actual block odds, and the hardware you’d need. No hype, just math.

Understanding Solo Mining Profitability Fundamentals in 2026

Before we compare specific coins, you need to understand how profitability calculations work differently for solo mining versus pool mining.

In pool mining, you calculate daily earnings: (your hashrate / network hashrate) × daily block rewards × coin price – electricity cost. Pretty straightforward.

Solo mining requires a different framework. You’re not earning steady payouts — you’re hunting for full blocks. Your “profitability” is actually expected value over time, factored against variance.

The Expected Value Formula

Quick math: Expected Value (EV) per day = (Your Hashrate / Network Hashrate) × Blocks Per Day × Block Reward × Coin Price

This gives you the theoretical average. But variance determines how your actual results scatter around that average.

When I started solo mining, I made the mistake of only looking at EV. My first month mining Litecoin with an L7 should have netted 0.6 blocks statistically. I found zero. That’s variance.

Variance: The Solo Miner’s Reality

Lower network hashrate relative to your hardware means lower variance. If you control 0.1% of the network, your results will be smoother than controlling 0.0001%.

For practical solo mining, you want to find blocks regularly enough to stay motivated. Otherwise it becomes a lottery ticket that runs up your electricity bill.

I’ve written extensively about calculating your actual block-finding odds — that article includes probability distributions you can adapt to your hashrate.

Bitcoin Solo Mining: The Numbers Don’t Lie

Bitcoin is the original. It’s also become nearly impossible to solo mine unless you’re running serious infrastructure.

Current network hashrate sits around 600 EH/s (that’s 600,000,000 TH/s). Block reward after the 2026 halving: 3.125 BTC. Blocks come every 10 minutes on average, so 144 blocks per day.

Let’s say you deploy an Antminer S19 XP running 140 TH/s. Your share of the network: 140 / 600,000,000 = 0.000000233, or 0.0000233%.

Bitcoin Block Probability with Common Hardware

With 140 TH/s (one S19 XP):

• Expected time to block: Approximately 11,765 days (32 years)
• Daily block probability: 0.0085%
• Expected value per day: 0.000034 BTC

Even with 10× S19 XPs (1,400 TH/s total), you’re looking at roughly 3.2 years between blocks on average.

The Whatsminer M50S at 126 TH/s doesn’t materially change these odds — we’re still in “generational timescale” territory.

When Bitcoin Solo Mining Makes Sense

Honestly? It doesn’t for most people. But there are edge cases.

If you’re running 50+ petahashes (that’s roughly 350× S19 XPs), you start finding blocks every few weeks. Some large miners actually solo mine as a hedge — they want exposure to block rewards without pool fees, and they have enough hashrate to smooth out variance.

The FutureBit Apollo offers a lottery-ticket approach at much lower power draw, but with even more extreme odds.

For everyone else, Bitcoin solo mining is basically donating electricity to network security while playing the world’s most expensive lottery. Expected value might be theoretically positive if BTC price exceeds your electricity cost, but variance will likely ruin you first.

Litecoin Solo Mining: Better Odds, Smaller Rewards

Litecoin uses Scrypt algorithm and produces blocks every 2.5 minutes — four times faster than Bitcoin. Current block reward: 6.25 LTC (worth approximately $53.66 × 6.25).

Network hashrate for Litecoin runs around 1.3 PH/s (1,300 TH/s). That’s vastly smaller than Bitcoin, which fundamentally changes the solo mining equation.

Litecoin Solo Mining with an Antminer L7

The dominant Litecoin ASIC is the Antminer L7 at 9.5 GH/s (9,500 MH/s). Let’s run the numbers.

Your network share with one L7: 9,500 / 1,300,000,000 = 0.00000731, or 0.000731%.

Litecoin generates approximately 576 blocks per day (one every 2.5 minutes).

Expected blocks per day: 0.00000731 × 576 = 0.00421 blocks

Expected time to block: 1 / 0.00421 = 237 days (roughly 8 months)

This is drastically better than Bitcoin. Still a long wait, but within the realm of “might actually happen during the lifespan of the hardware.”

Scaling Up Litecoin Hashrate

With 5× L7 units (47.5 GH/s total), you’re looking at blocks every 47 days on average. That’s roughly one block per difficulty adjustment period — now we’re in interesting territory.

With 20× L7 units, you’d expect a block roughly every 12 days. Variance still matters, but you’re finding blocks regularly enough to validate your setup is working.

I know a miner running 8× L7s pointed at Litecoin Core solo mining. He found three blocks in his first two months (lucky), then went dry for six weeks (variance), then hit two blocks in one week (very lucky). His cumulative results after a year basically matched expected value, but the emotional rollercoaster was intense.

Litecoin Merged Mining: DOGE as a Bonus

Here’s something worth noting: Litecoin miners also mine Dogecoin simultaneously through merged mining. You’re hashing the same work, but both networks accept it.

If you solo mine Litecoin and hit a block, you also potentially hit a Dogecoin block during that same work. Expected value roughly doubles when you factor in DOGE rewards.

Of course, this also means running both a Litecoin node and a Dogecoin node, which adds setup complexity. But mathematically, you’re essentially getting free lottery tickets on a second network.

Kaspa Solo Mining: High-Speed BlockDAG Architecture

Kaspa operates fundamentally differently. It’s a blockDAG (directed acyclic graph) rather than a linear blockchain, generating one block per second — 86,400 blocks per day.

Current block reward: approximately 300 KAS per block (worth approximately $0.0293 × 300). Network hashrate sits around 400 PH/s.

The ultra-high block frequency completely changes variance dynamics. You’re not waiting months between attempts — you’re rolling the dice 86,400 times daily.

Kaspa ASIC Mining: Goldshell KA3

The Goldshell KA3 delivers 166 TH/s on the kHeavyHash algorithm at 3300W power draw.

Your network share: 166,000 / 400,000,000 = 0.000415, or 0.0415%.

Expected blocks per day: 0.000415 × 86,400 = 35.9 blocks

That’s right — with a single KA3, you’d statistically expect to find roughly 36 blocks per day. In practice, variance means some days you find 28, some days 44, but you’re finding blocks constantly.

Why Kaspa Solo Mining Actually Works

The high block frequency means variance smooths out fast. Over a week, you’re looking at 251 expected blocks with a KA3. Standard deviation becomes negligible as a percentage of total blocks found.

This makes Kaspa one of the few coins where solo mining with consumer hardware produces predictable results similar to pool mining — but without the 1-2% pool fees.

You can also solo mine Kaspa with GPUs, though the efficiency is poor compared to ASICs. I’ve covered the detailed comparison in my Kaspa ASIC vs GPU article.

The Kaspa Catch: Block Reward Value

Here’s the tradeoff: Each Kaspa block pays only 300 KAS (currently around $0.0293 × 300). You’re finding blocks constantly, but they’re individually small.

Let me break this down:

36 blocks per day × 300 KAS = 10,800 KAS daily
At current prices, that’s approximately $0.0293 × 10,800 per day
Minus electricity: 3.3 kW × 24h × your rate per kWh

At $0.10/kWh, electricity costs $7.92 daily. Whether that’s profitable depends entirely on KAS price.

Direct Profitability Comparison: Which Coin Wins?

Let’s compare apples to apples using equivalent hardware investments (around $3,000-5,000 worth of ASICs).

Scenario 1: $4,000 Hardware Budget

Bitcoin option: One Antminer S19 XP (140 TH/s)

• Expected time to block: 32 years
• Block reward if you hit: 3.125 BTC (~$66,312 × 3.125)
• Practical outcome: You’ll run this for years without finding anything

Litecoin option: One Antminer L7 (9.5 GH/s)

• Expected time to block: 237 days
• Block reward if you hit: 6.25 LTC (~$53.66 × 6.25)
• Practical outcome: Maybe 1-2 blocks per year, high variance

Kaspa option: One Goldshell KA3 (166 TH/s)

• Expected blocks: ~36 per day
• Daily reward: ~10,800 KAS (~$0.0293 × 10,800)
• Practical outcome: Predictable daily income, low variance

Expected Value vs Variance Reality

Mathematically, you can calculate expected value for all three scenarios. But expected value means nothing if variance is so extreme you never actually reach the expected outcome.

With Bitcoin, your EV might be positive, but you could run for 50 years without a block due to bad luck. That’s not mining — that’s gambling.

With Litecoin, variance is manageable if you run multiple units. One L7 is still pretty rough. Five L7s starts making sense.

With Kaspa, variance becomes irrelevant after your first week. You’re effectively getting pool-mining consistency with solo-mining fee savings.

The Electricity Cost Warning

None of this matters if your electricity cost is too high. Let me be blunt about this.

At $0.15/kWh or higher, you’re probably underwater on all three coins unless prices spike. The math looks better at $0.10/kWh, and quite good at $0.06/kWh.

Calculate your true cost: monthly kWh × your rate. Include demand charges if you’re commercial. Factor in cooling if you’re running in a hot climate. I’ve had readers discover their “cheap” electricity was actually $0.18/kWh after demand charges.

Honest assessment: If you’re above $0.12/kWh, solo mining is probably not for you unless you’re doing it purely for the learning experience and accepting the financial loss.

Hidden Gem: Alternative Coins for Solo Mining

Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Kaspa get all the attention, but they’re not the only options — and depending on your hardware, they might not even be the best options.

GPU-Based Solo Mining Targets

If you’re running GPUs instead of ASICs, the calculation changes completely. Bitcoin is impossible, Litecoin is impossible, and Kaspa is unprofitable against ASICs.

Better GPU targets for solo mining:

Ravencoin (KawPow algorithm): Network hashrate around 6 TH/s, blocks every minute. A solid 6-GPU rig running 300 MH/s gives you 0.005% of the network — still challenging, but blocks come frequently enough that multiple rigs become interesting. I’ve covered the best GPUs for Ravencoin solo mining if you want specifics.

Firo (FiroPow algorithm): Lower network hashrate than Ravencoin, ASIC-resistant design. Worth investigating if you already own modern GPUs. Check my Firo GPU configuration guide for setup details.

Vertcoin (Verthash algorithm): Specifically designed to resist ASICs through memory-hard hashing. Small network means realistic solo odds with just 2-3 GPUs. Full setup process in my Vertcoin GPU guide.

CPU Solo Mining Options

CPUs can’t compete on Bitcoin, Litecoin, or Kaspa. But RandomX coins level the playing field.

Monero: The obvious choice. Network hashrate around 2.5 GH/s. A Ryzen 9 7950X delivers roughly 20 KH/s, giving you 0.0008% network share. Expected time to block: several years. Not great for solo mining unless you’re running a server farm, but I documented the optimization process here.

Zephyr Protocol: RandomX fork with much lower network hashrate. More realistic solo mining target for CPU miners. Setup is nearly identical to Monero — full guide here.

ASIC-Resistant Blake3 Coins

Alephium: Blake3 algorithm with sharding architecture. Reduces effective competition through parallel chains. Worth investigating for GPU miners. I’ve documented the node setup and Blake3 configuration.

These alternatives won’t make you rich, but they offer better solo mining odds than mainstream coins if you’re running consumer hardware. The key is matching your hardware type to a coin where that hardware stays competitive.

Setting Up for Solo Mining: Pool vs Self-Hosted Node

You’ve picked your coin. Now you need infrastructure.

Two approaches: point your miners at a solo mining pool like Public-Pool.io, or run your own full node.

Solo Mining Pools: Easier but Less Pure

Services like Public-Pool.io let you solo mine without running a full node. You point your miners at their pool, but they track your shares individually. If you find a block, you get the full reward minus a small fee (typically 0.5-2%).

Advantages:

• No node maintenance
• No blockchain sync wait times
• No port forwarding or networking configuration
• Backup infrastructure if your internet drops

Disadvantages:

• You’re trusting the pool to credit your blocks
• Fees eat into your rewards
• You’re not truly solo mining — technically you’re pool mining with individual accounting

For most beginners, this is the practical choice. I used Public-Pool for my first six months before setting up dedicated nodes.

Self-Hosted Nodes: True Solo Mining

Running your own full node means downloading the complete blockchain and configuring mining software to connect directly to your node.

For Bitcoin, that’s running Bitcoin Core with the RPC server enabled. For Litecoin, Litecoin Core with specific configuration. For Kaspa, a rusty-kaspa node.

This is actual solo mining. No intermediary, no fees, no trust required. But you need technical comfort with command-line interfaces, network configuration, and system administration.

Hardware requirements vary by coin. Bitcoin’s blockchain is now over 500 GB and growing. You need fast storage (SSD recommended), stable internet, and reliable power. If your node goes down, your miners aren’t producing valid work.

I run dedicated nodes for Litecoin and Kaspa on old desktop hardware — nothing fancy, just reliable machines with SSDs. Initial sync took 2-3 days for Litecoin, about 12 hours for Kaspa.

Mining Software Configuration for Solo Mining

Your ASIC or GPU needs software that understands solo mining. Pool mining software won’t cut it.

ASIC Configuration

Most modern ASICs (Antminer, Whatsminer, Goldshell) have web interfaces where you configure pool URLs. For solo mining:

• If using a solo pool: Enter their stratum URL like any other pool
• If using your own node: Enter stratum+tcp://YOUR_NODE_IP:PORT

You’ll need your node’s username and password (set in the coin’s .conf file). Test connectivity before running at full hashrate — I wasted three days “mining” before realizing my node config had a typo and wasn’t accepting work.

GPU Mining Software

For GPUs, you’ll need algorithm-specific software:

SRBMiner: Excellent for RandomX (CPU) and some GPU algorithms. Built-in solo mining support for many coins.

BzMiner: Multi-algorithm support for AMD and NVIDIA. Good documentation for solo mining configuration.

NBMiner: Popular for Ethereum-era algorithms, still useful for KawPow and similar.

Each miner has different syntax for solo mode. Typically you specify your node’s IP and RPC credentials in a config file or command-line arguments. Read the documentation carefully — one wrong parameter and you’re just generating heat.

Managing the Psychology of Solo Mining

Here’s something nobody talks about: solo mining is psychologically brutal.

Pool mining gives you constant feedback. Every day, you see shares submitted, shares accepted, estimated earnings updating. It feels productive.

Solo mining gives you silence. Days pass. Weeks pass. Your miners hum away, consuming electricity, producing… nothing. No feedback. No confirmation your setup even works.

Then suddenly — a block. Everything was working the whole time. You just didn’t know it.

My Personal Experience with the Dry Spell

I solo mined Litecoin for 93 days with 3× L7s before hitting my first block. Statistically, I should have found one around day 79. The delay wasn’t extreme — just within normal variance — but psychologically it was rough.

Every day I’d check the node logs. Nothing. I’d verify my miners were connected. They were. I’d recalculate my expected time to block. Still 1-2 months given bad luck. I started second-guessing whether something was misconfigured.

Day 93, I woke up to 6.25 LTC in my wallet. Everything was fine. I was just experiencing variance.

Week 14, I hit two blocks in three days. Week 18, another block. Over six months, my results have converged toward expected value — but the emotional volatility was intense.

I wrote about managing expectations and actually enjoying the process after that experience. Worth reading if you’re considering solo mining.

Staying Motivated During Dry Spells

Strategies that helped me:

• Keep detailed logs: hashrate, uptime, expected blocks vs actual blocks. Seeing the statistics helps maintain perspective.
• Calculate cumulative expected value rather than focusing on individual blocks. You’re building EV every day, even when blocks don’t hit.
• Set milestones unrelated to blocks: “maintain 99% uptime for 30 days”, “optimize power consumption by 5%”.
• Remember why you’re solo mining: learning blockchain mechanics, avoiding pool fees, supporting decentralization — not just immediate profit.

Solo mining teaches patience. Some people love it. Others hate it. Figure out which camp you’re in before investing heavily in hardware.

Bear Market Considerations for Solo Miners

One more thing worth discussing: what happens when crypto prices drop?

Pool miners can quickly calculate whether they’re profitable and shut down if needed. Solo miners face a harder decision.

If you’ve been mining for three months without a block, then prices drop 40%, should you keep running? Your expected value just decreased, but you’ve already invested three months of electricity with nothing to show for it.

This is a sunk cost fallacy, but it doesn’t feel like one when you’re living through it. If you shut down now, those three months were wasted. If you keep running, maybe you hit a block next week and the prices recover.

Quick math doesn’t help here. This is where solo mining becomes as much about psychology as mathematics.

My approach: I calculated the electricity cost at which I’d shut down regardless of sunk costs — approximately where daily power cost exceeds 90% of expected daily block value. Below that threshold, I keep running. Above it, I shut down even if it feels like “wasting” previous investment.

I’ve written extensively about solo mining during bear markets if you want more detailed decision frameworks.

ROI Reality Check: Running the Numbers Honestly

Let’s talk about actual return on investment, because the mining influencers selling you hardware aren’t going to be honest about this.

Bitcoin Solo Mining ROI

Investment: $4,000 for an S19 XP
Power consumption: 3010W × 24h × 365 days = 26,368 kWh per year
At $0.10/kWh: $2,637 annual electricity cost

Expected blocks: 0.011 per year (one block every 88 years)
Expected value from mining: 0.011 × 3.125 BTC × $66,312

Unless BTC price is extraordinarily high, your expected value won’t cover electricity. And that’s before factoring in the time-value of your $4,000 initial investment.

Bitcoin solo mining loses money for anyone not running at massive scale. That’s not pessimism — that’s just math.

Litecoin Solo Mining ROI

Investment: $4,000 for an L7
Power consumption: 3425W × 24h × 365 days = 29,989 kWh per year
At $0.10/kWh: $2,999 annual electricity cost

Expected blocks: ~1.54 per year
Expected value: 1.54 × 6.25 LTC × $53.66 + DOGE bonus

This is closer to break-even, assuming LTC price holds and accounting for merged mining. Still, you’re looking at 2-3 year payback on hardware investment if everything goes perfectly.

Variance risk is significant. You might hit 3 blocks year one and zero blocks year two, averaging to expected value but creating cash flow problems.

Kaspa Solo Mining ROI

Investment: $4,500 for a KA3
Power consumption: 3300W × 24h × 365 days = 28,908 kWh per year
At $0.10/kWh: $2,891 annual electricity cost

Expected blocks: ~13,140 per year
Expected value: 13,140 × 300 KAS × $0.0293

Whether this is profitable depends entirely on KAS price. The advantage here is low variance — you’ll know within your first month whether it’s working, rather than gambling on maybe hitting a block someday.

Hardware Depreciation Reality

All of the above ignores hardware depreciation. ASICs lose value over time, both from wear and from newer models launching.

An S19 XP worth $4,000 today might be worth $1,500 in two years. Factor that into your ROI calculation: you need to make $4,000 (initial cost) + $5,200 (two years electricity at $2,600/year) + $2,500 (depreciation) = $11,700 over two years just to break even.

For Bitcoin at 0.022 expected blocks over two years, you’d need BTC price to be roughly $123,000 just to break even ([$11,700 / 0.022 blocks / 3.125 BTC per block]) — and that assumes you actually hit your expected blocks rather than getting unlucky with variance.

Do the math for your specific situation. Don’t trust calculator websites that assume best-case scenarios.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which coin is most profitable to solo mine in 2026?

That naturally depends on your hardware and electricity cost, but Kaspa currently offers the best balance of block frequency and reward value for ASIC miners. Bitcoin and Litecoin solo mining are only viable at scale — you need multiple units to manage variance. For GPU miners, look at lower-hashrate coins like Vertcoin or Firo where your hardware represents a larger percentage of the network.

How much hashrate do I need to solo mine Bitcoin profitably?

Realistically, you’d need at least 50 PH/s (roughly 350× Antminer S19 XPs) to find blocks monthly and manage variance. Anything less turns Bitcoin solo mining into a lottery ticket rather than a business. The network hashrate is simply too high for consumer-scale mining. If you’re interested in Bitcoin solo mining as a lottery, check out the FutureBit Apollo for a low-power approach.

Is solo mining more profitable than pool mining?

Expected value is slightly higher for solo mining since you avoid pool fees (typically 1-2%). However, variance makes solo mining riskier — you might go months without blocks while pool mining provides steady payouts. Solo mining only makes sense when your hashrate is large enough relative to network hashrate that you find blocks regularly. For most coins and most miners, pool mining offers better practical returns despite the fees.

Can I solo mine with just one ASIC?

Depends on the coin. One Kaspa ASIC (like the Goldshell KA3) finds blocks daily due to Kaspa’s 1-second block time. One Litecoin ASIC finds blocks every 8 months on average — possible but high variance. One Bitcoin ASIC won’t find a block in your lifetime. Always calculate expected time to block before committing to solo mining. I’ve created a probability chart that helps estimate your odds.

Should I solo mine during a bear market?

Only if your electricity cost is low enough that expected block value exceeds daily power cost. During bear markets, many miners shut down, which lowers difficulty and improves your odds — but if prices have dropped enough, even improved odds won’t justify the electricity cost. Calculate your shutdown price threshold before starting, so you’re making rational decisions rather than emotional ones when prices drop. More on this in my bear market strategy guide.