Solo Mining Probability Chart 2026: Block Finding Odds Guide

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it — solo mining is basically a lottery. But here’s the thing: it’s a lottery where you can actually calculate your odds, and those odds change based on how much hashrate you’re throwing at it. When I first started solo mining at 13, I had no idea how to figure out if my setup had a 1-in-100 or 1-in-10,000 chance of hitting a block. Turns out, the math isn’t that hard once you break it down.

This guide walks you through exactly how to calculate your solo mining probability, read probability charts, and understand what your hashrate actually means in terms of block-finding odds. No joke: once you understand these numbers, solo mining gets way more strategic and way less “hope and pray.”

Real talk: I’m running a NerdQaxe++ at about 2.9 TH/s for Bitcoin, and I wanted to know my actual odds. Not “maybe someday” odds, but real mathematical probability. That’s what pushed me to learn this stuff, and now I check probability calculators before I even consider pointing hashrate at a new coin.

Understanding Solo Mining Probability: The Basic Math

Here’s how probability works in solo mining. Every time your miner submits a valid share, it’s basically a lottery ticket. The network difficulty determines how hard it is to find a block, and your hashrate determines how many tickets you’re buying per second.

The formula that matters:

Expected time to find a block (in seconds) = Network Difficulty × 2^32 / Your Hashrate

Sounds complicated, but let me break it down with a real example. Bitcoin’s current difficulty is around 110 trillion. If you’re running 100 TH/s (that’s a pretty solid ASIC), your expected time to find a block is roughly 1,370 days. That’s about 3.75 years.

Now here’s what people get wrong: “expected time” doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to find a block in that timeframe. It means that’s your average. You might find one in a week (lucky!), or you might go 10 years without finding anything (brutal, but possible).

The probability follows what’s called a Poisson distribution. Basically, your chances don’t improve just because you’ve been mining longer. Every single hash attempt is independent. It’s like flipping a coin — if you flip heads 10 times in a row, your next flip still has a 50/50 chance.

How Network Difficulty Affects Your Odds

Network difficulty adjusts regularly to keep block times consistent. For Bitcoin, that’s every 2016 blocks (roughly two weeks). When more miners join, difficulty goes up. Your odds get worse unless you add more hashrate.

I learned this the hard way when I started solo mining Kaspa. The difficulty was climbing fast in late 2026, and my GPU setup that had decent odds in September suddenly had terrible odds by November. That’s just how it works.

For coins with lower network hashrate, your odds can be surprisingly good even with modest hardware. A single high-end GPU on Ravencoin might give you a realistic shot at finding blocks. The same GPU pointed at Bitcoin? Basically zero chance.

Step 1: Calculate Your Personal Hashrate Accurately

First thing: you need to know your ACTUAL hashrate, not the theoretical maximum. Most miners don’t run at advertised speeds 24/7.

For ASIC miners, check your miner’s dashboard or pool stats over a 24-hour period. Don’t just look at the instant hashrate — that fluctuates. Average hashrate over a day is what matters for probability calculations.

For GPU mining, use your mining software’s reported average. In most cases, you’ll see a 5-minute average and a 24-hour average. Use the 24-hour number for probability calculations.

Here’s a quick reference for common solo mining setups:

• Bitaxe Gamma 602: ~602 GH/s (0.602 TH/s) for Bitcoin
• NerdQaxe++ (overclocked): ~2.9 TH/s for Bitcoin
• Avalon Nano 3S: ~3.3 TH/s for Bitcoin
• Canaan Avalon Mini 3: ~37.5 TH/s for Bitcoin
• NVIDIA RTX 4090: ~120 MH/s for Ethereum-based algorithms
• AMD RX 7900 XTX: ~60 MH/s for KawPow (Ravencoin)

Once you have your accurate hashrate, you can plug it into probability calculators. But honestly, understanding the math yourself helps you make better decisions about which coins to mine and whether it’s worth upgrading your hardware.

Account for Downtime and Invalid Shares

Your effective hashrate is always lower than your reported hashrate because of downtime, internet hiccups, and invalid shares. I usually multiply my average hashrate by 0.95 (95%) to get a realistic number for probability calculations.

That 5% loss comes from random disconnections, brief power outages, and the occasional invalid share that doesn’t count toward finding a block. If your internet is sketchy or your power flickers sometimes, maybe use 0.90 or even 0.85 to be safe.

Step 2: Find Current Network Statistics for Your Target Coin

You need two pieces of info: current network difficulty and current block reward. These numbers change, so you’ll want fresh data.

For Bitcoin, check any block explorer like blockchain.com or mempool.space. Current Bitcoin difficulty is displayed prominently, and block reward is $66,312 divided by the number of blocks (currently 6.25 BTC per block, will halve in the future).

For altcoins, use these resources:

• WhatToMine: Shows difficulty for most mineable coins
• MiningPoolStats: Network hashrate and difficulty stats
• Coin-specific explorers: Most coins have their own explorer with difficulty stats

Write down these numbers because you’ll need them for the next step. Here’s what I track for the coins I monitor:

Bitcoin: Difficulty ~110T, Block reward 6.25 BTC, Block time 10 minutes

Litecoin: Difficulty ~45M, Block reward 6.25 LTC, Block time 2.5 minutes

Kaspa: Network hashrate ~1.2 PH/s, Block reward ~140 KAS, Block time ~1 second

Ravencoin: Difficulty ~120K, Block reward 2500 RVN, Block time 1 minute

These stats change constantly, but they give you a baseline for comparing your hashrate to the network. If the network hashrate is 100 PH/s and you’re running 100 TH/s, you control 0.1% of the network. That directly translates to finding approximately 0.1% of all blocks over a long enough timeframe.

Step 3: Use a Solo Mining Probability Calculator

Now the fun part — actually calculating your odds. There are several calculators available, and they all use the same basic math but present it differently.

Best solo mining probability calculators:

CryptoCompare Mining Calculator: Shows probability over different timeframes (day, week, month, year). Good for getting a feel for your odds.

WhatToMine Solo Mode: Built-in probability calculator when you switch to solo mining mode. Shows expected time to block and probability percentages.

3Commas Block Reward Calculator: Specifically designed for solo miners, shows odds in easy-to-understand percentages.

I mostly use WhatToMine because it’s already got all the coin data built in. You just enter your hashrate and it spits out the probability. But honestly, I built my own simple calculator in a spreadsheet so I can tweak variables and see how adding more hashrate changes my odds.

How to Read Probability Percentages

When a calculator shows “5% chance per month,” that means if you mined for 100 months with that exact setup, you’d expect to find about 5 blocks total. But probability is weird — you might find 0 blocks, you might find 10. It averages out over a huge sample size.

A better way to think about it: 5% per month means there’s a 95% chance you find NOTHING that month. And a 0.25% chance (roughly) you find TWO blocks in that month. Small odds of extreme outcomes.

Depending on your setup, you’ll see results like:

• 0.01% chance per day: Basically hopeless for short-term, but over years you might get lucky
• 1% chance per week: Realistically might find a block every 2-3 years
• 10% chance per day: Pretty solid odds, likely to find blocks regularly
• 50% chance per day: You’re controlling significant network hashrate, blocks are frequent

For most hobby solo miners with small setups, you’re looking at the 0.01% to 1% range. That’s okay! That’s the whole point of solo mining — it’s a lottery with terrible odds but massive payouts when you win.

Step 4: Visualize Your Odds with Probability Charts

Numbers are cool, but charts make it way easier to understand your actual chances. Here’s how to build or interpret probability charts for solo mining.

The most useful chart shows cumulative probability over time. This answers the question: “What’s my chance of finding at least one block if I mine for X days?”

The formula is: P(at least one block) = 1 – e^(-days / expected_days)

Where expected_days is your average time to find a block based on your hashrate. That negative exponent is important — it creates a curve that starts steep and then flattens out.

Here’s what the curve looks like for a miner with a 365-day expected block time (one block per year on average):

• After 30 days: ~8% chance of finding at least one block
• After 90 days: ~22% chance
• After 180 days: ~39% chance
• After 365 days: ~63% chance
• After 730 days: ~86% chance

Notice it never reaches 100%? That’s because there’s always a tiny chance you never find a block, no matter how long you mine. But after mining for 3× your expected time, you’re at about 95% probability of having found at least one.

No joke: I printed out a chart like this and stuck it on my wall next to my NerdQaxe. Every day I mark off, I can see my cumulative probability slowly climbing. It helps with managing expectations because I can literally see that I’m still in the “statistically likely to have found nothing” zone.

Hashrate vs Probability Chart

Another useful visualization shows how adding more hashrate affects your odds. This helps you decide if upgrading hardware is worth it.

For Bitcoin solo mining, here’s roughly how different hashrate levels translate to odds (assuming current difficulty):

• 1 TH/s: 0.02% per month (~400 years expected time)
• 10 TH/s: 0.2% per month (~40 years expected)
• 100 TH/s: 2.2% per month (~3.75 years expected)
• 1 PH/s: 22% per month (~4.5 months expected)
• 10 PH/s: 90%+ per month (~13 days expected)

You can see the relationship is linear — 10× more hashrate = 10× better odds. But the absolute numbers for Bitcoin are brutal unless you’re running serious industrial gear.

That’s why a lot of hobby solo miners focus on smaller coins. A single Avalon Mini 3 at 37.5 TH/s has terrible odds for Bitcoin but might have decent odds on a lower-difficulty coin if you can point Scrypt or Ethash hashrate there.

Step 5: Compare Probability Across Different Coins

This is where solo mining gets strategic. Your hashrate might give you terrible odds on one coin but surprisingly good odds on another.

Let’s compare what a single high-end GPU (like an RTX 4090) could achieve across different coins:

Ethereum Classic (EthHash, ~120 MH/s): Network hashrate ~180 TH/s, your share ~0.000067%, probability ~0.3% per month

Ravencoin (KawPow, ~60 MH/s): Network hashrate ~8 TH/s, your share ~0.00075%, probability ~3% per month

Ergo (Autolykos, ~250 MH/s): Network hashrate ~20 TH/s, your share ~0.00125%, probability ~5% per month

Same physical GPU, wildly different odds depending on which coin you point it at. Ravencoin and Ergo start looking like realistic targets for solo mining, while Ethereum Classic is a longer shot.

For ASIC miners, the comparison is similar. A small Bitcoin ASIC has terrible odds for BTC but if you can find a Scrypt or SHA-256 altcoin with lower difficulty, your odds improve dramatically.

I actually solo mine multiple coins simultaneously by splitting my hashrate. It’s not the most efficient approach, but it diversifies my lottery tickets. One GPU on Ravencoin, another on Ergo, and my Bitcoin ASICs just humming along hoping for that miracle block.

Factor in Block Reward Value

Probability isn’t everything — you also need to consider what you WIN when you find a block. A 5% monthly chance at a $50 block is very different from a 5% monthly chance at a $50,000 block.

Here’s the current block reward value for popular solo mining coins (as of 2026):

• Bitcoin: 6.25 BTC = ~$390,000 (varies with BTC price $66,312)
• Litecoin: 6.25 LTC = ~$600
• Dogecoin: 10,000 DOGE = ~$1,500
• Kaspa: ~140 KAS = ~$20 per block (but FAST blocks, multiple per day possible)
• Ravencoin: 2,500 RVN = ~$100
• Ergo: ~51 ERG = ~$100

This is why Bitcoin solo mining remains popular despite terrible odds — even a tiny chance at $390k is worth it for some people. Meanwhile, Ravencoin blocks are only $100, so you need way better odds for it to feel worth the effort.

Personally, I chase the big payouts. My Bitcoin miners have awful odds but if I ever hit a block, I’m set for college (and then some). My GPU on Ravencoin has way better odds but even if I find a block, it’s not life-changing money. Both are fun for different reasons.

Step 6: Track Your Results and Adjust Your Expectations

Once you start solo mining with a clear understanding of your probability, the next step is tracking your actual results vs expected results.

I keep a simple spreadsheet:

• Start date of solo mining
• Hashrate (average)
• Calculated probability per day
• Cumulative probability to date
• Blocks found (unfortunately still zero for my Bitcoin rig)

Every week I update the cumulative probability and check if I’m within the “normal” variance range. If my calculated odds say I should have a 25% chance by now and I haven’t found anything, that’s totally normal. If I’m at 95% cumulative probability and still nothing, that’s unlucky but still within possibility.

Some miners on the solo block database found blocks within days despite having tiny odds. Others mined for years past their expected time. That’s variance. That’s solo mining.

The tracking helps me stay rational about it. When I see my probability climbing each week, it reminds me that I’m not “due” for a block, but my cumulative chance of having found one is increasing. It’s weirdly satisfying to watch that number grow, even if the actual block hasn’t appeared yet.

When to Upgrade or Switch Coins

If your probability calculations show less than 1% chance per year, honestly, you might want to rethink your strategy. That’s a 100-year expected time to find a block. Sure, you could get lucky, but your odds are so low it’s basically the same as not mining at all.

Better options:

• Add more hashrate (buy another miner, rent hashrate for a burst attempt)
• Switch to a coin with lower difficulty where your odds are better
• Accept it as a pure lottery ticket and mine casually without expecting results

I upgraded from a Bitaxe Gamma to a NerdQaxe++ specifically because my probability calculator showed it would improve my odds by about 5×. Still terrible odds, but 5× less terrible. Every little bit helps when you’re chasing lottery-level payouts.

Real-World Probability Examples from My Mining

Let me show you my actual solo mining setups and their calculated odds. This makes the math way more concrete.

Setup 1: NerdQaxe++ on Bitcoin
Hashrate: 2.9 TH/s
Network difficulty: ~110T
Expected time to block: ~1,584 days (4.3 years)
Probability: 0.063% per month, 0.77% per year
What this means: If I run this for 10 years, I have about a 7-8% chance of finding one block. Brutal odds, but the block is worth $390k, so I keep it running.

Setup 2: RTX 3070 on Ravencoin
Hashrate: 28 MH/s (KawPow)
Network hashrate: ~8 TH/s
Expected time to block: ~333 days
Probability: 9% per month, 64% per year
What this means: Realistically good odds. I’ll probably find a block within a year or two. The block is only worth ~$100, but it’s way more achievable than Bitcoin.

Setup 3: Raspberry Pi NerdMiner (yes, really)
Hashrate: ~50 KH/s
Network difficulty: Bitcoin
Expected time to block: ~183 million years
Probability: LOL
What this means: This is purely educational. I’ll never find a block. But it taught me how mining works, and that’s worth more than $100 anyway. Plus it’s a great conversation starter.

The takeaway? Different setups = wildly different odds. The calculator shows me exactly which rigs are realistic block-finders and which ones are just for fun or learning. Both have value, but I manage my expectations accordingly.

Honest Reality Check: When Solo Mining Doesn’t Make Sense

Here’s the thing nobody wants to admit: for most coins and most hashrates, solo mining is NOT the mathematically optimal choice if you just want to maximize earnings.

Pool mining gives you steady, predictable income. Solo mining gives you massive variance — most months you earn nothing, and maybe once every few years you hit a jackpot.

If you’re paying for electricity and you NEED to cover those costs, solo mining Bitcoin or Litecoin with small hashrate is a bad idea. Your expected value is the same as pool mining (minus pool fees), but your variance is way higher. You might run at a loss for years before hitting a block that puts you back in profit.

Run the numbers on electricity first. If you’re spending $50/month on power and your probability calculator shows a 0.1% monthly chance of a $500 block, your expected monthly value is $0.50. You’re losing $49.50 per month on average. Even if you eventually hit that block, you’ll have spent thousands on electricity to get there.

Solo mining makes sense when:

• You have free or very cheap electricity
• You’re mining for fun/education, not profit
• You have enough hashrate that your odds are at least 5-10% per month
• You can afford to “lose” the electricity cost as entertainment expense
• The potential block reward is life-changing money, making the lottery worth it

I’m in the “cheap electricity + mining for fun” category. My family’s power is included in rent, so I’m not paying per kWh. If I had to pay full retail electricity rates, I’d probably only run my Bitcoin ASIC a few hours per day, or I’d switch to pool mining for steady income.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a solo mining probability calculator and how does it work?

A calculator for solo mining probability uses your hashrate and the network difficulty to determine your chances of finding a block within a specific timeframe. It applies probability formulas based on the Poisson distribution, showing you percentages for daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly odds. You enter your miner’s average hashrate and the coin you’re targeting, and it outputs your expected time to find a block plus probability percentages. These tools help you understand if your setup has realistic odds or if you’re chasing a near-impossible outcome.

How accurate are solo mining probability calculations?

The math is perfectly accurate for expected averages over long time periods. If a calculator says you have a 10% monthly chance, and you mine for 1,000 months, you’ll find close to 100 blocks total. But in the short term, variance is huge. You might find three blocks in a month or go two years with nothing — both outcomes are possible even with “10% monthly” odds. The calculations tell you the average behavior, not what will definitely happen to you specifically. Think of it like flipping a coin — we know it’s 50/50, but you might flip five heads in a row.

What hashrate do I need for realistic solo mining odds?

That naturally depends on which coin you’re targeting. For Bitcoin, you’d need at least 100 TH/s to have even a 1% monthly chance, and realistically 1 PH/s or more for frequent blocks. For smaller coins like Ravencoin, a single high-end GPU (30-60 MH/s) gives you 2-5% monthly odds. For coins like Kaspa with fast block times, even modest GPU hashrate can land multiple blocks per month. Use a probability calculator to check specific coins, but generally: if your calculated odds are below 1% per month, you’re in “extreme lottery” territory. Above 5% per month, you’ll likely see regular blocks.

Can I improve my solo mining odds without buying more hardware?

Yes, by switching to coins with lower network difficulty. Your existing hashrate might have terrible odds on Bitcoin but strong odds on a smaller-cap coin. You can also try renting hashpower for short “burst mining” sessions where you temporarily increase your odds. Some miners overclock their existing hardware to squeeze out 5-15% more hashrate, though this increases power consumption and heat. Another option: mine coins with shorter block times (like Kaspa), which give you more frequent lottery tickets even if each individual block is worth less.

Is solo mining worth it if my probability calculator shows low odds?

Depends what “worth it” means to you. If you’re purely profit-focused and paying for electricity, probably not — pool mining gives more consistent returns. But if you’re mining for the thrill, to support decentralization, or because a potential life-changing block reward makes the lottery exciting, then low odds might still be worth it. I run a 2.9 TH/s Bitcoin miner with less than 1% annual odds because hitting that block would be absolutely incredible, and my electricity is cheap enough that I can afford the gamble. Just make sure you understand the odds going in and don’t expect to find blocks regularly with low probability setups.